Publications

1. Soll, J.B., Palley, A.B., Klayman, J., Moore, D.A. 2023. Overconfidence in Probability Distributions: People Know They Don’t Know but They Don’t Know What to Do About It. Accepted for publication at Management Science.
2. Palley, A.B., Satopää, V. 2023. Boosting the Wisdom of Crowds Within a Single Judgment Problem: Weighted Averaging Based on Peer Predictions. Management Science (In Press).
   
3. Soll, J.B., Palley, A.B., Rader, C.A. 2022. The Bad Thing About Good Advice: Understanding When and How Advice Exacerbates Overconfidence. Management Science 68(4): 2949-2969.
   
4. Palley, A.B., Soll, J.B. 2019. Extracting the Wisdom of Crowds When Information is Shared. Management Science 65(5): 2291-2309.
   • Winner of the 2021 Decision Analysis Society Publication Award.
   • Winner of the 2018 Hillel Einhorn New Investigator Award.
   • Winner of the 2015 Decision Analysis Society Student Paper Award.
5. Offerman, T., Palley, A.B. 2016. Lossed in Translation: An Off-the-Shelf Method to Recover Probabilistic Beliefs from Loss-Averse Agents. Experimental Economics 19(1): 1-30.
6. Palley, A.B., Kremer, M. 2014. Sequential Search and Learning from Rank Feedback: Theory and Experimental Evidence. Management Science 60(10): 2525-2542.
7. Keeney, R.L., Palley, A.B. 2013. Decision Strategies to Reduce Teenage and Young Adult Deaths in the United States. Risk Analysis 33(9): 1661-1676.
   
   

Working Papers

• Palley, A.B., Steffen, T.D., Zhang, X.F. 2022. The Effect of Dispersion on the Informativeness of Consensus Analyst Target Prices. Minor Revision resubmitted to Management Science.
  
• Palley, T.S., Jose, V.R.R., Palley, A.B., Keeney, R., Juric, M. 2023. A Multiattribute Decision Model to Evaluate Potential Investments in Near-Earth Object Detection Technologies.
• Palley, A.B., Bansal, S. 2021. Is it Better to Elicit Quantile or Probability Judgments to Estimate a Continuous Distribution? Elicit Both and Create an Inner Crowd.
• Palley, A.B. 2017. Extending the Wisdom of Crowds: Quantifying Uncertainty Using the Mean and Variance of a Collection of Point Estimates.