Publications

1. Soll, J.B., Palley, A.B., Rader, C.A. 2020. The Bad Thing About Good Advice: Understanding When and How Advice Exacerbates Overconfidence. Management Science (Forthcoming).
2. Palley, A.B., Soll, J.B. 2019. Extracting the Wisdom of Crowds When Information is Shared. Management Science 65(5): 2291-2309.
   • Winner of the 2018 Hillel Einhorn New Investigator Award, presented by the Society for Judgment and Decision Making.
     
   • Winner of the 2015 Decision Analysis Society Student Paper Award.
3. Offerman, T., Palley, A.B. 2016. Lossed in Translation: An Off-the-Shelf Method to Recover Probabilistic Beliefs from Loss-Averse Agents. Experimental Economics 19(1): 1-30.
4. Palley, A.B., Kremer, M. 2014. Sequential Search and Learning from Rank Feedback: Theory and Experimental Evidence. Management Science 60(10): 2525-2542.
5. Keeney, R.L., Palley, A.B. 2013. Decision Strategies to Reduce Teenage and Young Adult Deaths in the United States. Risk Analysis 33(9): 1661-1676.
   
   

Working Papers

• Palley, A.B., Satopää, V. 2020. Boosting the Wisdom of Crowds Within a Single Judgment Problem: Weighted Averaging Based on Peer Predictions.
  
• Soll, J.B., Palley, A.B., Klayman, J., Moore, D.A. 2020. Overconfidence in Probability Distributions: People Know They Don’t Know but They Don’t Know What to Do About It.
  
• Palley, A.B., Bansal, S. 2020. Is it Better to Elicit Quantile or Probability Judgments to Estimate a Continuous Distribution?
  
• Palley, A.B., Steffen, T.D., Zhang, X.F. 2020. Consensus Analyst Target Prices: Information Content and Implications for Investors.
• Palley, A.B. 2017. Extending the Wisdom of Crowds: Quantifying Uncertainty Using the Mean and Variance of a Collection of Point Estimates.
• Palley, A.B. 2013. Great Expectations: Prospect Theory with a Consistent Reference Point.