Publications

1. Palley, T.S., Jose, V.R.R., Palley, A.B., Keeney, R., Juric, M. 2026. Evaluating Investments in Asteroid Detection Technologies to Prevent Catastrophic Impacts on Earth. Accepted for publication in Management Science.
   • Finalist for the 2023 Decision Analysis Society Practice Award.
     
2. Palley, A.B., Steffen, T.D., Zhang, X.F. 2025. The Effect of Dispersion on the Informativeness of Consensus Analyst Target Prices. Management Science 71(3): 1865-1888.
   
3. Soll, J.B., Palley, A.B., Klayman, J., Moore, D.A. 2024. Overconfidence in Probability Distributions: People Know They Don’t Know but They Don’t Know What to Do About It. Management Science 70(11): 7422-7442.
4. Palley, A.B., Satopää, V. 2023. Boosting the Wisdom of Crowds Within a Single Judgment Problem: Weighted Averaging Based on Peer Predictions. Management Science 69(9): 5128-5146.
   • Finalist for the 2025 Decision Analysis Society Publication Award.
5. Soll, J.B., Palley, A.B., Rader, C.A. 2022. The Bad Thing About Good Advice: Understanding When and How Advice Exacerbates Overconfidence. Management Science 68(4): 2949-2969.
6. Palley, A.B., Soll, J.B. 2019. Extracting the Wisdom of Crowds When Information is Shared. Management Science 65(5): 2291-2309.
   • Winner of the 2021 Decision Analysis Society Publication Award.
   • Winner of the 2018 Hillel Einhorn New Investigator Award.
   • Winner of the 2015 Decision Analysis Society Student Paper Award.
7. Offerman, T., Palley, A.B. 2016. Lossed in Translation: An Off-the-Shelf Method to Recover Probabilistic Beliefs from Loss-Averse Agents. Experimental Economics 19(1): 1-30.
8. Palley, A.B., Kremer, M. 2014. Sequential Search and Learning from Rank Feedback: Theory and Experimental Evidence. Management Science 60(10): 2525-2542.
9. Keeney, R.L., Palley, A.B. 2013. Decision Strategies to Reduce Teenage and Young Adult Deaths in the United States. Risk Analysis 33(9): 1661-1676.
   
   

Working Papers

• Pal, A., Palley, A.B., Satopää V.A. 2025. Enhancing the Wisdom of AI-Assisted Crowds: Theory and Experimental Evidence.
  
• Palley, A.B., Bansal, S. 2025. Eliciting Judgmental Forecasts for Sales and Operations Planning: A Comparison of Common Approaches.
  
• Satopää V.A., Palley, A.B., Grushka-Cockayne, Y., Persinger, C.C. 2025. Machine-Moderated Judgmental Forecasting to Improve Prediction Accuracy.
  
• Palley, T.S., Palley, A.B., Butters, R.A., Çetin, O. 2024. Charging into the Future: Intermittency and the Role of Energy Storage in the Transition to a Renewable Electric Grid.
  • Invited for presentation at the MSOM Sustainable Operations SIG 2024 Conference
• Palley, A.B. 2017. Extending the Wisdom of Crowds: Quantifying Uncertainty Using the Mean and Variance of a Collection of Point Estimates.